1 Balancing process with delay
Early Warning Symptom: "We thought we were in balance, but then we overshot the mark." (Later, you may overshoot in the other direction again.)
Management Principle: In a sluggish system, aggressiveness produces instability. Either be patient or make the system more responsive.
2 Limits to growth
Early Warning Symptom: "Why should we worry about problems we don't have? We're growing tremendously." (A little later, "Sure there are some problems, but all we have to do is go back to what was working before." Still later, "The harder we run, the more we seem to stay in the same place.")
Management Principle: Don't push on the reinforcing (growth) process, remove (or weaken) the source of limitation.
3 Shifting the burden
Early Warning Symptom: "Look here, this solution has worked so far! What do you mean, there's trouble down that road?"
Management Principle: Focus on the fundamental solution. If symptomatic solution is imperative (because of delays in fundamental solution), use it to gain time while working on the fundamental solution.
4 Eroding goals
Description: A shifting the burden type of structure in which the short-term solution involves letting a long-term, fundamental goal decline.
Eariy Warning Symptom: "It's okay if our performance standards slide a little, just until the crisis is over."
5 Escalation
Early Warning Symptom: "If our opponent would only slow down, then we could stop fighting this battle and get some other things done."
Management Principle: Look for a way for both sides to "win," or to achieve their objectives. In many instances, one side can unilaterally reverse the vicious spiral by taking overtly aggressive "peaceful" actions that cause the other to feel less threatened.
6 Success to successful
Early Warning Symptom: One of the two interrelated activities, groups, or individuals is beginning to do very well and the other is struggling.
Management Principle: Look for the overarching goal for balanced achievement of both choices. In some cases, break or weaken the coupling between the two, so that they do not compete for the same limited resource (this is desirable in cases where the coupling is inadvertent and creates an unhealthy competition for resources).
7 Tragedy of the commons
Early Warning Symptom: "There used to be plenty for everyone. Now things are getting tough. If I'm going to get any profit out of it this year, I'll have to work harder."
Management Principle: Manage the "commons," either through educating everyone and creating forms of self-regulation and peer pressure, or through an official regulating mechanism, ideally designed by participants.
8 Fixes that fail
Early Warning Symptom: "It always seemed to work before; why isn't it working now?"
Management Principle: Maintain focus on the long term. Disregard short-term "fix," if feasible, or use it only to "buy time" while working on long-term remedy.
9 Growth and underinvestment
Early Warning Symptom: "Well, we used to be the best, and we'll be the best again, but right now we have to conserve our resources and not over-invest."
Management Principle: If there is a genuine potential for growth, build capacity in advance of demand, as a strategy for creating demand. Hold the vision, especially as regards assessing key performance standards and evaluating whether capacity to meet potential demand is adequate.